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Dlr Sale
AceTrader-Daily Market Outlook -20-6-2011
Market Review - 17/06/2011 21:38 GMT
Euro rallies on supportive eurozone leaders' comments on Greece
The single currency rallied against the greenback on Friday on euro-supportive comments at the Merkel-Sarkozy joint press conference which sparked off heavy broad-based buying of euro.
Earlier in the day, euro was under initial pressure in Asian session on news that Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou had to keep his Pasok party's shrinking parliamentary majority in line to pass 78 billion euros in austerity measures required for Greece to get a second bailout from the European Union and comments from Eurogroup Chairman Jean-Claude Juncker that the German Parliament wanted to decide on Greek aid in autumn, pushing back hopes for a mid July decision.
Despite initial strong retreat fm 1.4224 in Australia, euro rebounded from 1.4127 ahead of European opening. The single currency then rallied on comments from European Council President Herman Van Rompuy who said 'will discuss containing Greek contagion risk in meeting with Irish Prime Minister; there will be discussion about the situation in the eurozone, particularly Greece'.
Intra-day upmove accelerated before the scheduled joint-press conference by the German and French leaders at 09:45GMT, the single currency quickly climbed above stops above 1.4220 and hit a high of 1.4300 near European midday, price penetrated option barrier at 1.4300 to a session high of 1.4339 in New York morning after release of weaker-than-expected U.S. consumer sentiment and U.S. growth concerns (University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment dropped to 71.8 from 74.3 in May.
The International Monetary Fund lowered U.S. 2011 GDP growth forecast to 2.5% from 2.8% and 2012 GDP growth forecast to 2.7% from 2.9% compared to forecast earlier in April before retreating after rating agency Moody's placed Italy's AA2 ratings on review for possible downgrade .
German Chancellor Angela Merkel said in the joint news conference that 'Europe and euro closely linked, Germany has profited enormously from euro; will do everything to support euro, get through difficult time; the faster we solve euro problems the better; want involvement of private creditors on voluntary basis; will work out details of private sector involvement with ECB, wants quick solution; France and Germany united that they want quick solution on Greece; does not want to trigger credit event; Vienna initiative good foundation for private sector participation.'
French President Nicolas Sarkozy said 'France and Germany have same position on Greece and euro; France and Germany want new programme put in place quickly; Greek deal needs to be agreed in accordance with the ECB; 'there is a breakthrough' on bondholder involvement.'
Cross selling in sterling (especially versus the single currency on euro-supportive news on Greece) pressured the pound, however, cable managed to pare early losses and ended little change on Friday. During the day, gbp/usd continued to move lower from Thursday high of 1.6170 in Asian session and dropped to a session low of 1.6094 before rebounding, climbed to 1.6200 in New York afternoon.
Versus the Japanese yen, dollar remained under pressure throughout the day and intra-day decline gathered momentum in Europe due to broad-based weakness of the greenback, the pair later fell to 80.02 and closed near session low at New York closing.
In other news, International Monetary Fund's regular assessment of global economic prospects said 'U.S., some Eurozone countries "playing with fire" unless they make difficult budget decisions; lifts euro area 2011 GDP growth forecast to 2.0% from 1.6% in April, lowers 2012 GDP growth forecast to 1.7% from 1.8%; cites Greece, Ireland, Japan and U.S. as countries with biggest need to repair public finances.'
On the data front, the eurozone trade balance came in at -4.1 billion euro versus economists' forecast of -2.1 billion and seasonal adjusted figure of 1.6 billion in March. The Conference Board released its index of leading economic indicators in May, which showed an increase of 0.8%, more than forecast, after a 0.4% drop a month earlier.
Data to be released next week included:
U.K. Rightmove hse prices; Japan import, export, trade balance, Cabinet Office economic report and leading indicators; Germany PPI; EU current account on Monday.
RBA's board June minutes; U.K. PSNCR, PS net borrowing and CBI orders; Germany ZEW economic sentiment and ZEW Current Situation; Canada leading indicators and retail sales; U.S. existing home sales on Tuesday.
Australia Westpac leading economic index; U.K. BOE releases minutes of the MPC's meeting; EU industrial orders and consumer sentiment; Swiss ZEW index; U.S. monthly home price and Fed rate decision on Wednesday.
Swiss trade balance; Germany manufacturing and services PMI; EU manufacturing and services PMI; U.K. CBI distribution trade; U.S. jobless claims and new home sales on Thursday.
Daily Technical Outlook on EUR/USD
EUR/USD - 1.4279... Although the single currency extended the recent fall
fm Jun's high of 1.4696 to as low as 1.4073 last Thur., euro staged a strg short
-covering rally to 1.4339 in Fri's NY session after euro-supportive statements
fm German & French leaders, suggesting aforesaid decline has made a temp. low.
Looking at the bigger picture, the 'roller-coaster' price action in May n
June suggests there is no end to recent volatile movements n although consolida-
tion with initial upside bias is seen this week for gain to 1.4385, being a 'nat-
ural' 50% r of 1.4696-1.4073, only abv 'dynamic' res at 1.4458 (61.8% r) wud
retain bullish prospect of further headway twd chart obj. at 1.4498. On the down-
side, breach of 1.4073 wud shift risk to downside for weakness twd 1.3968 but
only a break there wud confirm MT rise fm 1.1876 (Jun 2010) has made a major top
at 1.4940 n extend said MT fall twd 1.3770, being 38.2% r of aforesaid move.
Today, intra-day weakness on ambiguity over terms of Greek aid has pre-
ssured euro, only below 1.4224 (prev. res) wud signal said upmove fm 1.2073 has
ended n risks weakness to 1.4177, 1.4127, abv 1.4339 extends twd 1.4375/85.
Daily Technical Outlook on GBP/USD
GBP/USD - 1.6158... Despite extending the early rise fm 1.6215 to 1.6443
initially last week, the British pound reversed aforesaid move after release of
a slew of weaker-than-expected U.K. economic data, price tanked to as low as
1.6078 b4 staging a euro-led rebound to 1.6200 Friday.
Looking at the daily chart, present falling daily indicators suggests
consolidation with downside bias still remains n unless cable can close abv 1.62
57, being the 'minimum' retrace. of the recent erratic fall fm 1.6547 to 1.6078,
downside bias is seen for a re-test of key daily sup at 1.6055 where a breach
there wud strongly suggest MT erratic rise fm 1.4228 (May 2010) has formed a
major top at 1.6747, then risk wud shift to downside for weakness to 1.5785,
being 38.2% r of this move. On the upside, a daily close abv 1.6257 wud prolong
choppy consolidation n yield gain to 1.6368 (61.8% r) but 1.6443 shud hold.
Today, as long as 1.6125 (61.8% r of 1.6078-1.6200) holds, mild upside
bias remains for further headway twd 1.6225, however, reckon res at 1.6273 wud
cap present rise. Below 1.6125 signals recovery over, 1.6094, break, 1.6055.
Daily Technical Outlook on USD/JPY
USD/JPY - 80.10... Despite rising fm last week's low of 80.09 (Tue) to
81.08 on Thur., dlr's broad-based weakness in Asian, European & NY sessions Fri.
pressured the pair, intra-day decline accelerated after penetrating 80.48-49 sup
n the greenback fell to 80.02, then closed 2 ticks abv said NY low.
Looking at the daily chart, despite dlr's erratic upmove fm Jun's low at
79.70, subsequent strg retreat suggests consolidation with downside bias is
seen initially this week, a breach of key daily sup at 79.57 anytime wud turn
outlook bearish on the dlr as such a move wud signal early fall fm 85.53 has
once again resumed, then weakness to 78.97 wud follow, being 70.7% r of the rise
fm 2011 record low of 76.25 to 85.53, however, reckon 78.55 (61.8% proj. of said
decline fm 85.53-79.57 measured fm 82.23) wud contain downside. On the upside,
in the event dlr holds abv 79.57 n climbs abv 81.08, this wud signal price wud
move inside 79.57-82.23 range, then gain to 81.77 may be seen but 82.23 wud hold.
Today, selling dlr on recovery is cautiously favoured as only abv 80.67
confirms low is made n risks another bounce twd 81.08.
Daily Technical Outlook on USD/CHF
USD/CHF - 0.8500... Despite dlr's strg retreat fm Mon's high at 0.8468,
buying interest at 0.8348 Tue, abv previous record low at 0.8327 (May 7) lifted
the pair n price rose to 0.8552 on Wed on dlr's broad-based strength. However,
long liquidation n cross-buying in chf (eur/chf fell to a fresh lifetime low at
1.1946 on Thur) sent dlr to 0.8443 on Fri b4 staging a cross-inspired recovery.
Looking at the daily chart, dlr's rise to 0.8552 suggests a temporary low
is possibly in place n a daily close abv 0.8552/54 res wud confirm this view,
then outlook wud improve for stronger correction to 0.8611, being a 'natural'
50% r of 0.8895-0.8327, however, only abv 0.8747 wud tune outlook bullish for
further headway twd daily chart obj. at 0.8947 later this month.
Today, buying on dips in anticipation of gain twd 0.8552 is cautiously
favoured. On the downside, below 0.8443 wud signal recovery fm 0.8327 is over n
aforesaid decline fm 0.8552 wud extend weakness to 0.8404 , however, as hourly
oscillators' readings wud display bullish convergences on such move, 0.8370
(80.9% r of 0.8327-0.8552) shud contain downside n yield subsequent recovery.
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